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River Ice Monitoring and Forecasting Theory for Ice Flooding Prevention

2021-06-08

Main Participants: GUO Xinlei, WANG Tao, LIU Zhiping, FU Hui, YAN Denghua, YANG Kailin, TUO Youcai, WANG Jun, PAN Jiajia, LI Jiazhen, LIU Jifeng, PENG Xuming, MU Xiangpeng, GUO Yongxin, WANG Dangwei, WU Yunan, CUI Haitao, LU Jinzhi


Background

China is one of the most affected countries by ice jam disasters in the world, and it is urgent to solve ice problems and prevent ice disasters in Northern rivers and artificial ducts in cold regions for wintertime water safety management. To solve such problems, this project has proposed a series of theoretical methods, field equipment, and new technologies for avoiding ice flooding, preventing chain effects of ice jams, and promoting river ice studies. These research findings provided good examples for ice disaster prevention in cold region rivers and ducts with refined river ice models, developed recording devices, and improved the understanding of river ice processes.


Achievements

·   Having invented complete sets of equipment for ice-flow regime integrating dual-frequency radar measurement and developed a new method for measuring the flow discharge and streamwise velocities with and without ice covers using the stream tube method, which solves the difficulties of large-scale synchronous continuous measurements with thick ice and deep water and emergency detection of ice jam and ice dam, with the efficiency improved by more than 90%;

·   Having developed new methods such as flow-ice-sediment coupled algorithms, calculations of ice gouging on riverbanks, and anchor ice wave simulations by coupling the flow, ice and sediment theories, establishing the novel 2D flow-ice-sediment coupled mathematical model with more detailed physical processes increasing by 30%, which illustrates complex interactions between flow fluctuations, river ice movement, sediment transport, and channel evolutions in ice jam formation and release, and expands the basic research theory of river ice;

·   Having identified the mechanism that the formation of ice jam and ice dam is mainly affected by “characteristics-thermo-dynamics”, and developed an ice dam forecasting model based on fuzzy neural network combined with the formation mechanism and internal changes of ice dams, which supports the long-term forecast of the freeze-up date and break-up date as well as the grade of ice flood disaster as early as 40 days in advance;

·   Having revealed the accumulation mechanism of ice jams such as inverted siphon of channel structures and gate ice jam, proposed the key hydraulic criteria such as ice jam thickness distribution, anti-ice jam critical water depth and critical number of Fr for floating ice transport; and established the theoretical method of preventing ice dam by blasting beneath ice, providing a direct basis for the solution of technical problems such as the time, location and layout method of blasting. 


Application

The results have been successfully applied in domestic and international rivers, such as middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, upper reaches of Heilongjiang River, the Niaraga River and the Peace River, as well as the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and the relevant regulation and storage project, direct water supply project of Shanxi Yellow River Diversion Project and Hohhot Pumped Storage Power Station Reservoir, and significant economic and social benefits have been achieved.

Fig. 1 Typical Disaster Pictures of Ice Flood

Fig. 2 Complete Equipment, Indicators and Applications of Integrated Ice-Water Regime Dual-frequency Radar Measurement

Fig. 3 Ice Regime Forecasting and Flow-ice-sediment Coupled Simulation Technology

Fig. 4 Application of the Complete Set of Technology

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