LIU Chuang, LIU Jiahong, LU Jiahui, SHAO Weiwei, SU Xin

Abastract: Climate change and urbanization aggravate the risk of urban flood. The evaluation of flood loss in urban areas is helpful to the scientific management of flood risk. Taking Guangzhou as an example,this paper evaluates the current situation of rainstorm loss in different return periods and forecasts the future rainstorm loss considering the impact of climate change and socio-economic development comprehensively, and analyzes the cost-benefit of flood response measures. The results show that the average annual expected loss of flood in Guangzhou is about 588 million yuan, and the future flood disaster will be greatly affected by climate change and socio-economic development. The cost-benefit analysis of urban flood prevention project in Guangzhou shows that the benefits of engineering measures are more significant for rainstorms with return periods less than 50 years, and for rainstorms with return periods more than 50 years, economic measures such as flood insurance can be used to transfer risks.

Keywords: urban flood, climate change, loss evaluation, cost benefit, economic development, flood in-surance