ZHOU Jianzhong, JIA Benjun, WANG Quansen, ZHANG Yongchuan, FANG Wei, ZHANG Yulong

The existing flood operation models and methods cannot effectively deal with the complexity of the hydraulic connection between sections, and fail to accurately provide and make full use of the hydrological information of multiple key control sections, which is not sufficient to reasonably coordinate regional flood control and overall flood control safety. It is important to carry on a study on real-time panoramic flood control operation of reservoirs considering the information of multi-sections wide-area flood forecast. Firstly, according to the regulation of flood control operation, one-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to simulate the hydrological process of the river sections along the main and tributaries under various design flood conditions, and then the data sets reflecting the dynamic characteristics of flood evolution between upstream and downstream sections under the influence of reservoir regulation and storage are constructed. Secondly, multi-sections linear regression prediction model of the interaction effect is established to predict multi-section water level and flow, which have realized wide-area flood forecast of the main and tributaries. Finally, panoramic flood control operation of reservoirs driven by wide-area forecast information is proposed. To verify the effectiveness of the model, the cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are studied. The results show that the proposed model can fully consider interactions between the flood control situation of the downstream sections and the operation decision of the upstream reservoirs. It can also effectively parse the influence of the operation decision on the downstream flood-control sections, and make full use of the information of multi-sections simultaneous wide-area flood forecast, which help to maximize the coordination of regional and overall flood control safety. The research results have been preliminarily applied in the Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch & Communication Center, and have promoted the further improvement of flood control and disaster reduction of reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.

Keywords: one-dimension hydrodynamic, linear regression with interaction effect, wide-area flood forecast, panoramic flood control operation, reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River