WU Hao, ZHANG Jin-jie, JIANG Long, ZHU Zhao-hui

China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract: By analyzing the long-term monitoring results of the surface deformation and internal deformation at Mayanpo slope, combining gray system theory, the DGM (2, 1) prediction model has been established to predict the deformation of slope zone II of Mayanpo. The results show that the slope deformation is roughly divided into three stages: rapidly increasing stage, slowly increasing stage and gradually stabilizing stage and that the deformation will increase with time, but decrease with depth and the changing rate and acceleration of the displacement decrease with time. The test results show high accuracy of the prediction model, and the predictions results are relatively consistent with the measured data, which can provide reference for similar projects.

Key words: Mayanpo slope, deformation monitor, DGM (2, 1) model, forecast

Published in: Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (Vol. 12 No. 3, 2014)