YUAN Zhe, YAN Deng-hua, YANG Zhi-yong, YIN Jun

State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Abstract: As the limitations of individual model in simulating and forecasting the hydrological process, this study constructed the ensemble models of EW-CM and SPA-CM based on the Entropy Weight method and Set Pair Analysis method respectively, which aims at taking advantages of SWAT and Seasonal Index Self-memory Differential Hydrological Grey Model. The individual models and ensemble models were applied in runoff simulation and forecast in the Luanhe River Basin. The results show that SPA-CM performs the best while EW-CM was worse than SWAT in runoff simulation. EW-CM and SPA-CM perform better than the individual model in runoff forecast and the SPA-CM is proved to be a better one.

Key words: Ensemble model, SWAT model, Grey model, runoff simulation and forecast

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 45, No. 3, 2014