YAN Deng-hua 1, YUAN Zhe 1, 2, WANG Hao 1, YANG Zhi-yong 1

1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China. 2. Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

Abstract: In the background of climate change and human activities, the frequency of extreme hydrological events is increased, the occurrence time is different and the loss caused by the disaster is more serious. It is important to simulate and predict the hydrology process with the scientific and reasonable technological methods. This paper reviewed the development courses of both hydrological certainty and uncertainty methods, and analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of the two kinds of methods. Based on the above, the framework for the ensemble of certainty and uncertainty methods is put forward, including the internal ensemble of different uncertainty method, and the external ensemble of certainty methods and uncertainty methods. At last, some key problems during the process of ensemble were proposed.

Key words: environmental change, certainty, uncertainty, ensemble

Published in: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 44, No. 1, 2013